AI’s $5B Problem, WFH’s Death Knell, and Your Car’s Security Nightmare
As AI Costs Soar and WFH Dies, What’s Next for Tech?
Hi friend,
It’s that time of the year again when we look at hype and reality, scratch our heads, and try to make sense of it all.
When it comes to AI, the world seems to be very divided about the question of whether it will make us better, smarter, superhuman, or if it is just a big waste of time and energy.
This week’s Weekend Briefing is no different. AI will save us. And we are doomed.
Enjoy!
P ツ
P.S. If you haven’t done so already, I would love to hear how you like the radical Briefing! You can win a signed copy of my book… 🤗 ↗ https://tally.so/r/3jWvra
The Thin Wisps of Tomorrow
AGI Isn’t Real (Maybe) — Not quite convinced that AGI (artificial general intelligence) is coming—and coming soon? You are not alone. A group of researchers from some of Europe’s leading universities just published a paper arguing that AGI won’t happen. The debate is/continues to be on. (link ↗)
The AI Revenue Conundrum — OpenAI, the maker of our favorite AI overlord, is $5 billion in the hole this year (read: the company is on course to lose $5 billion). In many ways, this is indicative of how expensive it is to build and run AI models (and some argue it is the downfall of AI). But there is a whole different part to this story, as OpenAI also made $3.7 billion in revenue in the same period. Which is an awful lot of money all things considered—especially when you take into account that a Pro account is only $240 per year per person and thus, likely, quite a bit of this money is coming from API usage. (link ↗) Meanwhile, there is a good argument to be made that a lot of AI’s current momentum regarding investment is coming from the SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) world, which is rather desperate for growth. (link ↗)
The AI Competitive Edge — Talking about cost, revenues, and the potentially questionable business models of foundational model creators such as OpenAI or Anthropic: As much as the industry likes to paint the high development costs of foundational models as an “upfront” cost, the reality might be much more problematic: a never-ending race to stay relevant, burning through ever bigger piles of cash. (link ↗)
AI’s Sustainability Problem — We heard about AI’s insatiable appetite for electricity. But have you contemplated the environmental impact of manufacturing all those AI chips? It turns out both are huge and conjure up an argument that AI is simply ecologically unsustainable. (link ↗)
AI Makes You More Productive—Or Not — One of the commonly heard arguments regarding the ROI on AI investments is that, at least for developers, AI coding assistants lead to higher productivity and reduced burnout. Well, maybe not, as a new study from Upwork shows. (link ↗) Talking about AI developing software—this is an admittedly very nerdy exploration of the ability of LLMs to generate code. TL;DR: AI can augment but not replace coders. (link ↗)
Your Next Security Nightmare: Package Hallucination — Bear with me for a moment; this is going to be a little nerdy. Common programming languages, such as JavaScript and Python, rely on “packages,” bundles of code that provide specific functionality, such as sending an email using Amazon’s email service. A new study found that AI-generated code contains high rates of hallucinations when it comes to package names—in layman’s terms: The AI invents the name of a package. In the best case, your code will simply not run; in the worst case, it allows a malicious hacker to host a package with the corresponding name, resulting in a severe cybersecurity threat.(link ↗)
The WFH Dream is Dead — With COVID firmly in the rearview mirror, the work-from-home fever dream seems to have also found its end. What was hailed as “the future of work” just two years ago is now seemingly officially over. The latest nail in the coffin? A study shows that a whopping 79% of bosses fully expect WFH to be dead. (link ↗)
Build Your Own Robot — World-leading roboticist (and one of our favorite thinkers) Rodney Brooks (who gave the world the Roomba—and thus has created the by far most successful commercial robot ever) published his four rules on how to build and deploy robots. (link ↗)
You Are The Product — The famous saying “when you don’t pay, you become the product” might take on a whole new form of creepiness if (and when) the troubled DNA sequencing company 23andMe starts selling your DNA to the highest bidder. What could possibly go wrong? (link ↗)
Your Car Got Hacked — As more and more of our stuff becomes digitally enabled, it will create more and more attack surfaces for cybercriminals. Latest point in case: Your KIA car just got hacked, and you will be tracked. (link ↗)
What We Are Reading
😞 This Is What 8 Hours Of Social Isolation Does To Your Brain And Body (it’s Not Pretty) Eight hours of social isolation has the same immediate, dramatic impact on your energy and mood as going the same eight hours without food. @Jane
🌳 The Beauty Of A Silent Walk Walking is an automatic movement for most of us. When we do it and just bring along our thoughts, a flow state can quickly emerge. No music, no conversation, no stimuli. @Mafe
🤔 Founder Mode ICYMI: Paul Graham’s controversial essay arguing that no one runs a business like its founder — and that even larger companies can be better led in “founder mode” rather than “manager mode.” Not surprisingly: Some founders agree. Many execs who have led / scaled large companies vehemetly do not. @Jeffrey
🐾 Why The World’s First Pet Cemetery Was Revolutionary Pets are part of the family for most of us in this day and age, but in 1881, when a dog named Cherry passed away, the owner’s request to bury him in Hyde Park was a revolutionary act that kicked off a trend for pet cemeteries. @Pedro
📉 The Collapse Of Self-worth In The Digital Age Has the Internet created a system where our self-worth is constantly measured and evaluated? This can lead to a sense of emptiness and a desire for external validation, especially for those who create art. @Pascal
(Random) Bits & Pixels
🦥 Climate change might be the end of the sloth… (link ↗)
😽 Long before I started showing cat videos, cats were fodder for memes. (link ↗)
🌔 COVID made the moon freeze over. New research shows that during the COVID-19 lockdown, the surface temperature on the moon dropped measurably. (link ↗)
🏖️ No, the world is not running out of sand. (link ↗)
"Founder Mode" is a polite phrase for micromanagement