The Cure to Decision-Making Paralysis
Read on to discover how embracing the “drunken walk” methodology can revolutionize your approach to decision-making.
radical Insights
While conversing with our clients, friends, and various individuals at conferences, businesses, and occasionally with someone seated next to us on a flight, a curious trend emerged: in today’s whirlwind of rapid changes and overwhelming choices, it seems we’ve collectively encountered decision-making paralysis.
The sheer volume of options, combined with the unpredictable outcomes of our choices, has left many feeling lost in a sea of uncertainty. It’s no longer just about choosing between A or B; it’s about grappling with the consequences in a world that seems to be shifting beneath our feet. This indecision isn’t a sign of weakness; instead, it’s a natural response to the complex, uncertain, and interconnected environment we navigate daily.
However, here’s the twist: avoiding decisions doesn’t shield us from change’s impact; it simply hands control over to circumstance. The key to reclaiming our power lies not in seeking certainty but in becoming comfortable with uncertainty. We must embrace the art of making informed decisions without the guarantee of perfect outcomes. This entails gathering what we know, recognizing what we don’t (and distinguishing between the “knowable and unknowable unknowns”), and taking a step forward, armed with the courage to adjust as we progress.
To overcome this decision-making dilemma, it takes more than just well-intentioned encouragement from upper management. It requires us to approach business in a fundamentally different manner. Instead of primarily focusing on getting the strategy right and then executing linearly against the plan (remember the traditional “five-year plan”?), leaders should establish the direction by identifying and communicating the organization’s North Star. They ought to empower their teams to advance step by step in the defined direction, continually gathering insights and data that inform the plan for the subsequent steps. Inch by inch, allowing for ongoing course correction – a concept our friend Corey Ford refers to as the “drunken walk of the entrepreneur.”
Next time you find yourself stymied by indecision, remember your North Star and inch forward. As Northwestern University professor Dashun Wang points out in his seminal paper “Quantifying the dynamics of failure across science, startups and security,” your ability to “fail fast” (and, of course, learn along the way as well as incorporate those learnings into the next iteration) is not just prescriptive but descriptive of future success. @Pascal
The Thin Wisps of Tomorrow
Temu is Eating The World – or: Fashion Retail’s Race to The Bottom 🫳
Remember our concept of “hourglass economics”? It refers to the idea that consumer markets often split into two segments: a growing market for affordable and “good enough” products at the bottom, and an exclusive and specialized market at the top. This leads to the disappearance of the previously large middle market that used to offer value for money.
We initially observed this phenomenon in the fashion industry. Fast-fashion retailers like H&M, Zara, and Uniqlo emerged at the bottom of the hourglass, while niche brands like Allbirds, often selling directly to consumers, occupied the top. Meanwhile, traditional companies like The Gap, offering value for money, struggled to adapt. The trend spread like wildfire to other sectors, from consumer electronics to hospitality.
The emergence of Shein, the Chinese ultra-fast fashion retailer, has further accelerated this trend. And since its launch in the US market after last year’s SuperBowl, Temu has taken Shein’s strategy to the next level.
A new report from Adobe summarizes this succinctly: “The big-flashing lights that make the bulk of online shopping so appealing is door-to-door shipping at criminally-low prices. According to Adobe’s Digital Price Index, ’the cheapest pricing tier grew its share of sales significantly across categories,’ from 2019 to February 2023. It’s a race to the bottom because people are buying more, but they want to spend less.”
Brave new (shopping) world. @Pascal
What We Are Reading
🤝 Got a Radical Idea at Work? Find a Partner. Unorthodox ideas aren’t always welcomed. Research now suggests that radical thinkers thrive in a unique organizational setting by finding another individual to work with. Learn how pairs can be more effective in pursuing seemingly wild ideas and how to find someone to take the journey with you. @Jane
🧠 ChatGPT Will Now Remember — And Forget — Things You Tell It To This is borderline scary: “ChatGPT can now carry what it learns between chats, allowing it to provide more relevant responses. As you chat with ChatGPT, you can ask it to remember something specific or let it pick up details itself.” @Mafe
🔥 Astonishing Returns, Cult Overtones and a ‘Perfect Virtual World’. How the Hyperverse Scheme Caught Fire Online The story of the Hyperverse scheme, which allegedly bilked investors out of $2 billion, speaks to how truly chaotic things became at the peak of convergent crypto-metaverse hype. It should serve as a cautionary tale for the future. @Jeffrey
🧘 Schopenhauer’s Advice on How to Achieve Great Things Ever more content around the constant question of focus and meaningfulness in the present seems contradictory. However, revisiting a philosopher’s timeless recommendations on the topic of inner balance between the now and your future, as well as a personally induced limit on your perception, is very well done in this case. @Julian
🤖 2024 Tech Trends AI is here to stay and disrupt. Here are the famous tech trends for 2024 by CB Insights. @Pedro
💩 ‘Enshittification’ Is Coming for Absolutely Everything Taking the concept of “enshitification” to its logical conclusion, Cory Doctorow paints a dark future for consumer services and products. @Pascal
Bits & Pixels
» Apple may not have made much public announcement about their AI plans, but the teams at the Cupertino company continue to produce impressive work. The latest example is MGIE (MLLM-Guided Image Editing), an AI image tool that allows you to make edits by describing them.
» Justin Yu, only the second person to beat the classic computer game Tetris, reveals how he accomplished what many considered nearly impossible.
» (Entry-level) lawyers will increasingly be replaced by AI. Here is another paper showing that “advanced models match or exceed human accuracy in determining legal issues,” while “[operating] at a fraction of the price, offering a staggering 99.97 percent reduction in cost over traditional methods.”
» GeneGPT is an LLM tool that enhances access to biomedical information.
» Now you can cultivate bioluminescent petunias at home.
» Here are some impressive examples of what’s possible with the AI-based audio/music generating LLM called “stable-audio.”
» It’s not surprising, but you should take notes on paper. (Says the person currently typing this.)
» An incredible example of AI’s potential: F-Zero, a popular computer game, received restored courses from a defunct Nintendo satellite service using VHS and AI.
» Nvidia, the graphics and AI chip manufacturer that recently surpassed Amazon in size, has unveiled a chatbot that can be trained using your own data and deployed locally.
» Crossing the chasm: According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, solar and battery storage will account for 81% of the new electric-generating capacity in the United States in 2024.
Some Fun Stuff
Experience a captivating Google Arts and Culture experiment that takes you on an art-filled journey through time and space. 🎨
radical Ignite Session: The Future of Spatial Computing (or: Whatever happened to AR and VR?)
Join Pascal Finette in our dynamic bimonthly live event series to dive into the heart of innovation. Pascal engages in candid conversations with eminent experts who demonstrate progress in practice.
On Thursday, March 21st, starting at Noon EST, we feature Aaron Frank, a longtime expert in Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR), and Spatial Computing. Together, we will explore the future of this field.
With the recent release of Apple’s Vision Pro headset, Meta’s ongoing efforts, the continuous updates to the Quest Pro hardware, and the entry of new companies into the market, this could be the moment when headset-based computing takes off – or not?! Join our radical Ignite Session to find out!