The Power of Not Knowing

Why embracing uncertainty might be your strongest leadership strategy in the age of artificial intelligence

Tired of the constant barrage of AI news? Yes, I am too. And yes, I know that we, here at Radical, are guilty as charged when it comes to adding to the onslaught.

Ever since the launch of ChatGPT, and thus the constant drumbeat of “AI will change everything” and “AGI is around the corner” commentary (typically from those who are selling us their wares – and have to constantly fundraise to keep feeding the beast), I have been seeking out the contrarian view. It might not always agree with either side, but it does help me stay grounded in reality (whatever reality is these days).

Possibly the most important point to remember is that nobody, despite their claims, actually knows where this is all heading in the next couple of years. Alan Turing, AI’s godfather, astutely remarked:

We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done.

The bit most people focus on here is the “plenty there that needs to be done.” Which is undoubtedly correct, but the more important observation, particularly when it comes to AI, is the first part: “We can only see a short distance ahead…”

Which leads us to an interesting conundrum and challenge for leaders today: We operate in a world where we just don’t know. And that is not the way many of us were brought up to think about leadership. Leaders are those who have a plan, the ability to communicate it, rally resources around it, and execute. But what do you do in a world where you simply don’t know?

Asked differently: How do you lead into and in the unknown?

It is something most of us weren’t trained to do, nor do many of us feel comfortable answering our teammates' question of “What do we do now?” with “I don’t know!” It requires vulnerability, humbleness, the ability to ask questions instead of providing answers, as well as nimbleness in our actions.

So much of today’s learning is based on “best practices” – the mental shortcuts that get us to “best in class” behavior. The challenge is that excellence in current conditions is a short-term advantage but a potential long-term vulnerability, as it hinders our ability to adapt to rapidly changing conditions. Conditions that we often can’t even foresee from the current vantage point. Success thus lies in being “fit enough” while maintaining flexibility for the future.

In practice, this means creating space for experimentation, normalizing course corrections, and embracing the paradox that sometimes the most strategic decision is acknowledging we don't have a perfect strategy. It means building teams that are comfortable with ambiguity and who find energy in exploration rather than exhaustion.

The leaders who will thrive won't be those who make the boldest predictions about AI's future, but those who build organizations capable of adapting to whatever that future holds. They'll be the ones who can say "I don't know, but let's find out together" and mean it as an invitation, not an admission of defeat.

So as we navigate this flood of AI headlines and hyperbole, perhaps our focus should shift from seeking certainty to building resilience. After all, the most important skill in an age of unprecedented change isn't predicting the future – it's creating organizations that can flourish no matter what that future brings.

@Pascal