I really resonate with what you wrote about the AI debate, it's such a complex space right now! I'm curious how you see the role of regullation evolving in all of this, especially with the 'AI is slowing down' narrative juxtaposed with so many new tools; you always have such a sharp take on these developments.
Thanks for the shout-out, and yes, it's a fascinating and complex space. When it comes to regulation, I think one of the bigger challenges is that so much of it is based not on a fundamental understanding of the matter at hand by the regulator, but on "opinion" presented by parties with vested interests in the matter.
AIs have been investing since at least the 90s. I've had friends in London who worked at fintech startups (pre-web even) that coded AI systems for making "intelligent" stock market trades.
They all failed, of course. As will the current generation of actors.
The issue today is the same as then: stochastic systems tied up with the anthrocomplexity of public markets do not somehow break the old investment adage of "past performance is not indicative of future results". The so-called smartest guys in the room will still get pantsed by margin calls from snarky Redditors proppping up unsustainable companies just to stick it to the man.
But good luck getting sufficient training data to avoid those out-of-distribution errors.
I really resonate with what you wrote about the AI debate, it's such a complex space right now! I'm curious how you see the role of regullation evolving in all of this, especially with the 'AI is slowing down' narrative juxtaposed with so many new tools; you always have such a sharp take on these developments.
Thanks for the shout-out, and yes, it's a fascinating and complex space. When it comes to regulation, I think one of the bigger challenges is that so much of it is based not on a fundamental understanding of the matter at hand by the regulator, but on "opinion" presented by parties with vested interests in the matter.
Re: the AIs are investing...
AIs have been investing since at least the 90s. I've had friends in London who worked at fintech startups (pre-web even) that coded AI systems for making "intelligent" stock market trades.
They all failed, of course. As will the current generation of actors.
The issue today is the same as then: stochastic systems tied up with the anthrocomplexity of public markets do not somehow break the old investment adage of "past performance is not indicative of future results". The so-called smartest guys in the room will still get pantsed by margin calls from snarky Redditors proppping up unsustainable companies just to stick it to the man.
But good luck getting sufficient training data to avoid those out-of-distribution errors.
Couldn't agree more!