Uncertainty Peaks: It's Not Just You, It's Everywhere
From hallucinating models to marathon-running robots, technology's evolution reflects our unpredictable world
Dear Friend,
The World Uncertainty Index is a measure that tracks uncertainty across the globe by text mining the country reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit. For years now, we have been tracking the index and using it in our keynotes and workshops—mainly to make the point that: “no, it is not just you, the world truly did become more uncertain.” I (Pascal) like to top it off with a poor dad joke along the lines of “the one thing which is certain is that uncertainty is rising.” The latest quarterly report just came out—Q1, 2025, is close to peak uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic! And that is beforeTrump announced the “Liberation Day tariffs”… So—rest assured, it’s not just you…
With that—let’s dig into this week’s news.
Headlines from the Future
OpenAI Puzzled as New Models Show Rising Hallucination Rates ↗
Maybe not so good…
OpenAI’s latest reasoning models, o3 and o4-mini, hallucinate more frequently than the company’s previous AI systems, according to both internal testing and third-party research. On OpenAI’s PersonQA benchmark, o3 hallucinated 33% of the time -- double the rate of older models o1 (16%) and o3-mini (14.8%). The o4-mini performed even worse, hallucinating 48% of the time. Nonprofit AI lab Transluce discovered o3 fabricating processes it claimed to use, including running code on a 2021 MacBook Pro “outside of ChatGPT.” Stanford adjunct professor Kian Katanforoosh noted his team found o3 frequently generates broken website links.
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Chinese Robots Ran Against Humans in the World’s First Humanoid Half-Marathon. They Lost by a Mile ↗
Despite the seemingly negative headline, this is an incredible feat of engineering.
More than 20 two-legged robots competed in the world’s first humanoid half-marathon in China on Saturday […] The first robot across the finish line, Tiangong Ultra – created by the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center – finished the route in two hours and 40 minutes.
That last statement is much more important—not the attention-grabbing headline that the robots didn’t win against their human opponents:
Alan Fern, professor of computer sciences, AI and robotics at Oregon State University, told CNN he was ‘actually very impressed’ that the robots managed within the time limit, saying he ‘would have bet that none of them would finish.’
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Your Next Security Nightmare: Using ChatGPT for Doxxing ↗
Doxxing—The malicious practice of researching and publishing someone’s private information online without their consent.
OpenAI’s latest release of ChatGPT has just made doxxing trivially easy: Upload a photo, ask ChatGPT to geolocate it, and chances are you will get a very precise location.
Want to know where your ex is partying this weekend? Just screenshot her Instagram Reels and let ChatGPT do the digging. To say this is messed up is an understatement…
There appear to be few safeguards in place to prevent this sort of “reverse location lookup” in ChatGPT, and OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, doesn’t address the issue in its safety report for o3 and o4-mini.
What We Are Reading
💸 ChatGPT Spends ‘Tens of Millions of Dollars’ on People Saying ‘Please’ and ‘Thank You’ Digital etiquette comes with a hidden price tag, as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman reveals that users saying “please” and “thank you” to ChatGPT cost the company “tens of millions of dollars” in electricity, raising questions about the balance between polite AI interactions and environmental responsibility. @Jane
🔬 Scientists Modified the Eyes of 5 Humans to See an ‘Unprecedented’ New Color Researchers have used a high-tech laser system to temporarily rewire human eye cones, allowing five people to perceive a never-before-seen color called “olo,” opening new possibilities for vision science despite current technological limitations. @Mafe
🔧 AI as Normal Technology A long, insightful read exploring the implications of different “AI worldviews” — and what might be gained by understanding AI as a “normal technology” (e.g., better conversations about diffusion, strategy, regulation, etc.) rather than a categorically different technology on an inevitable path toward superintelligence. @Jeffrey
🌊 2025 Digital Media Trends Streaming isn’t dying; it’s evolving. While traditional streamers compete over content libraries, the real disruption is coming from social platforms that blend community, commerce, and creator-driven entertainment at hyperscale. @Kacee
📈 Here’s How Big the AI Revolution Really Is, in Four Charts It’s easy to become complacent about the now ever-present AI boom. But its rapid rise and transformational impact cannot be understated. Here are some great visualizations illustrating that very point. @Julian
🙄 Annoyed ChatGPT Users Complain About Bot’s Relentlessly Positive ToneChatGPT is sucking up to users. The new behavior, where the model changes its responses to align with its users’ beliefs or opinions, irritates many. It’s called sycophancy. @Pedro
🆙 The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional Statetl;dr (Too Long; Didn’t Read): Delete the Facebook and Instagram apps from your phone. A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms what we knew all along – you’ll be happier, less anxious, and suffer less from depression. Do it. @Pascal
Rabbit Hole Recommendations
Happy Distractions
🗣️ Help us all if this is what AI’s true usefulness is all about: Why my wife yelling at me - AI wife yelling simulator
🥔 Did you know you can send a potato without any packaging in the US? Just write the address on it, put a stamp on, and off you go.
🎸 I analyzed chord progressions in 680k songs.
⛸️ Models of Ice Skating for the Development of Robotic Ice Skating Gaits (PDF)
🏃🏼♀️ Olympic Gold Medalist Dominates the 100m at Her Kid’s Sports Day Event
📸 Which Year – a photo-guessing game.ee
I really love the ‘What We Are Reading’ section, especially because I’m a friend of Peter. It’s nice to see what he and Mafe find interesting. Thanks for this masterpiece you deliver each week! :)