Unlock Your Past to Define Your Future
Read on to uncover the hidden connection between your past and your future visions.
radical Insights
Since my time at Singularity University, I have been discussing the concept of “exponential deception” – the straightforward yet profound observation that humans, as a rule, struggle to grasp exponential trends. Few have articulated this as effectively as Professor Albert Allen “Al” Bartlett, who famously stated:
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
(If you’re curious - his seminal talk on “Arithmetic, Population, and Energy” is well worth watching.)
I contend that today, with nearly six decades of Moore’s Law, a global pandemic (which happens to spread exponentially), and numerous discussions of exponentiality in the realms of technology spanning from computers and artificial intelligence to synthetic biology and renewable energy, we have gained a solid comprehension of the ramifications of exponential growth. (To be precise, exponentials seldom adhere strictly to exponential growth but rather follow S-curves that level off after an initial period of rapid expansion.)
During my presentations, I often evoke Ernest Hemingway’s insight from his debut novel, The Sun Also Rises, where he observes that change (in his novel’s case, bankruptcy) occurs “gradually, then suddenly,” a principle we have dubbed “Hemingway’s Law of Motion.” Decades later, Roy Amara, president of the Institute for the Future, encapsulated this notion in an adage about forecasting technology’s impacts: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
In this context, commentators frequently highlight the common pitfall of falling prey to the fallacy Amara identified, as we tend to extrapolate from the past, which often appears flat and linear, leading us to underestimate the magnitude of change we will encounter in a particular field.
Here’s where it becomes intriguing: to understand why we consistently make this error, one must delve into the workings of the human brain. The hippocampus, a key component of the brain, is primarily associated with memory. It furnishes vivid memories, both short-term and long-term, as well as spatial memory, housing and granting access to the repository of past experiences in one’s life. Additionally (and much lesser known), it plays a crucial role in envisioning the future.
This dual function contributes to the challenge of envisioning a tomorrow vastly different from today - our future visions are rooted in our past experiences. Overcoming this limitation requires actively engaging divergent parts of the brain - a concept akin to Daniel Kahneman’s insights on System 1 and 2 in his bestselling book “Thinking, Fast and Slow.”
And there’s another layer to this insight: if you aim to inspire people to envision the future, it is beneficial to connect the future to your audience’s lived experiences by stimulating their hippocampus.
The next time your work involves envisioning potential futures and/or conveying them to others, keep in mind (notice the subtle nod?) that your past and future are inherently intertwined in your brain. @Pascal
The Thin Wisps of Tomorrow
Seventy-One Percent of All Internet Bandwidth Is Consumed by the Four Largest Tech Companies 🛜
The insatiable demand for internet bandwidth continues to skyrocket. According to TeleGeography’s “State of the Network” report, global bandwidth usage reached an astonishing 3.9 Petabits per second, doubling since 2020. The major players driving this insatiable consumption? Tech giants Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft collectively account for a staggering 71% of global bandwidth usage. As the report notes, the demand for ever-more bandwidth continues to grow at an exponential rate, highlighting our increasing reliance on the digital world shaped by these tech behemoths. @Pascal
What We Are Reading
🧐 What We Discovered on ‘Deep YouTube’ YouTube estimates that there are more than 14 billion videos currently on the site. The Atlantic delves into why the video site is not just a platform; it is now part of the infrastructure of the Internet. @Jane
📺 YouTube TV Is the Us’s 4th-Biggest Cable TV Provider, with 8 Million Subs Do you know who the 4th biggest cable TV provider in the US is? It’s You Tube. Their CEO says their next frontier for growth is the “living room and subscriptions.” @Mafe
🤔 How Tech Outstayed Its Welcome Does the tepid reception of Apple’s Vision Quest Pro mark the tentative first step in a new era – or another waypoint in Big Tech’s nearly decade-long journey away from meaningful customer-focused innovation? @Jeffrey
⏳ People Are Worried That AI Will Take Everyone’s Jobs. We’ve Been Here Before. This provides a relevant perspective on our adoption of new technologies in our society and economy. In doing so, remarks on how polarizing opinions on new tech distract from the real tangible changes it brings and a reminder of businesses’ responsibility to truly integrate new developments in society, are great takeaways. @Julian
🗺️ California in Argentine Hands: A Brief History Lesson Did you know that California was once briefly under the Argentine flag 🇦🇷? @Pedro
🚫 The Cult of AI Leave it to Rolling Stone magazine to provide a much-needed perspective on the cult of AI and the role AI heretics play. @Pascal
Bits & Pixels
» With the Apple Vision Pro stirring up interest in AR/VR (ahem, Spatial Computing, of course), here is a nice overview of the history of virtual reality.
» Want some more inspiration on what the future holds? Here is the “Future 100” report from VML.
» Talking about the future - maybe not the smartest idea to wear your Apple Vision Pro headset while driving your Tesla Cybertruck.
» One of the lesser-known (yet powerful and highly effective) use cases for AI is mastering your music. And there goes another job…
» Turns out that playing the 2000s teen-hit game Dance Dance Revolution helps prevent older people from falling.
» The cat’s out of the bag: An Arizona utility admits that rooftop solar is a “threat to their business.”
» The idea that genes are the “programming language of life” might be a little too simplistic after all.
» A novel approach to 3D printing tissue created growing brain cells.
» Talk about unintended consequences: Satellite mega-constellations might weaken the Earth’s magnetic field.
Some Fun Stuff
While it may not be their season just yet, cicadas (the large, noisy insects) are so loud that even fiber-optic cables can hear them. 🪳🔊
Quote of the Week
“The machine age may seem daunting, but we can humanize and subjugate machines. We should neither reject them nor capitulate to them, but design them to serve our needs.”
— Walter Gropius